DISPATCH
Supply Chain Intelligence · Daily Briefing
Carrier Rates Post Sixth Consecutive
Weekly Decline as Blank Sailings
Surge Past Historical Norms
31 void sailings announced on Transpacific lanes; Drewry WCI settles at $1,919 — analysts warn 25% annual decline possible as new tonnage overwhelms demand
PORT OF LOS ANGELES — Feb. 26, 2026 — By the Rates Desk
Global container shipping rates extended their decline for a sixth consecutive week, dropping 1% to $1,919 per 40-foot container as the traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush continued to disappoint carriers and shippers alike. The latest slip in the Drewry World Container Index underscores an unusual market dynamic playing out across major trade lanes.
Spot rates from Shanghai to New York declined 1% to $2,782 per FEU, while Shanghai to Los Angeles rates held steady at $2,219. Carriers are responding aggressively, announcing 31 blank sailings for the coming week on Transpacific East and West Coast routes — well above historical norms for this time of year. The average spot rate from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast stood at $1,889 per FEU, down from $2,052 the prior week.
Analysts continue to warn that global freight rates could fall by as much as 25% in 2026 as new vessel deliveries collide with softer demand. Between September 2022 and September 2025, global container shipping capacity increased 27 percent — and an estimated 10 million TEU remains on order. For shippers, success in 2026 will be defined by the ability to withstand sharp and frequent fluctuations.
Also in Today's Edition
Drewry WCI Slides for Sixth Straight Week
Average spot rate from Far East to U.S. West Coast hits $1,889/FEU — down 8% from prior week as pre-LNY rush fails to materialize.
Singapore Transshipment Dwell Stretches Past 8 Days
Routing choice is now a primary driver of total landed time as major hubs from Jebel Ali to Colombo remain congested.
China-to-U.S. Volumes Down 30% Year-on-Year
Tariff uncertainty and frontloading overhang suppress transpacific demand through H1 2026.
Air Cargo Holds Steady as Carriers Pivot to Asia-Europe
IATA projects 2.6% volume growth in 2026 as agile capacity redeployment tempers rate swings.
Rates
Week-over-week. Blank sailings accelerating.
East Coast premium compressing.
Drewry WCI component.
Held steady amid blank sailing surge.
The Seasonal Pattern That Isn't: Why Rates Keep Falling When They Should Be Rising
Freight forwarders who built Q1 budgets around historical rate curves are now hedging in real time — and procurement teams are watching
The pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush that forwarders typically use to justify spot rate premiums has simply failed to arrive. Rates have been falling steadily since early January — a pattern that runs counter to typical seasonal behavior and signals something more structural than cyclical.
Xeneta's four-week rolling average of offered capacity as of February 16 increased 2.7% on Asia-West Coast services and 2.2% to the East Coast compared to the prior week. Carriers announcing 31 blank sailings in response is aggressive — but the math of 13–16% fleet growth against 3–5% trade growth is not easily voided by operational discipline alone.
Wire Roundup
Global fleet capacity grew 27% between September 2022 and September 2025. An estimated 10 million TEU remains on order — equivalent to a third of the current active fleet.
31 blank sailings announced this week on Transpacific East and West Coast routes — well above historical norms for this point in the calendar year.
From 2024 to 2026, global fleet size is expected to grow 13–16% while containerized trade grows only 3–5%. A significant capacity surplus is locked in.
U.S. import bookings remain well below 2024 levels on the Transpacific. China-to-U.S. volumes are nearly 30% lower year-over-year, with weakness projected through H1.
Shippers are moving away from heavy annual-contract dependence toward diversified, flexible strategies as GRIs in the thousands of dollars become the new norm.
Routes
Port Performance Monitor · Week of Feb. 26
3.33 days
Los Angeles
Import Processing
+8.7% from Jun low
3.33 days
New York / NJ
Import Processing
In line with LA
3.33 days
Savannah
Import Processing
Below Jan 2025 highs
5.14 days
Houston
Export Processing
-15.7% from mid-2025
7–8+ days
Singapore
Transshipment Dwell
Significant congestion
Congested
Jebel Ali
Hub Status
Scheduling disruptions
Red Sea Wire
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced ME11 service would resume Red Sea transits in mid-February following trial voyages and a lull in attacks after the Gaza ceasefire in October 2025.
Diversions around the Cape of Good Hope continue to absorb roughly 2 million TEU — about 8% of the global container fleet — extending transit times by 7–14 days on Europe lanes.
When Red Sea traffic does resume it will cause significant vessel bunching and congestion at European hubs, and likely drive equipment shortages at Far East origin ports.
Rising U.S.-Iran tensions could influence carrier decisions to delay Red Sea re-entry, alleviating overcapacity pressure for carriers later into 2026.
The Suez Canal Authority has forecast a return to normal traffic levels by the second half of 2026 — a timeline most analysts consider optimistic given current geopolitical signals.
Singapore's 8-Day Dwell Is Rewriting the Total-Cost Calculation for Asia-Europe Shippers
When the world's most efficient transshipment hub becomes a bottleneck, routing choice is no longer a footnote in the rate sheet — it's the lead story
Performance data shows a stark split in port efficiency. Singapore is experiencing 7–8+ days of total transshipment dwell. For a shipper moving goods from Qingdao to Rotterdam, that single hub adds more time variance than the entire Cape of Good Hope diversion adds to a direct service. Routing choice, not just rate, is now a primary driver of total landed time.
Major hubs — including West Mediterranean ports, Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, Mundra, and Colombo — remain congested, creating ongoing scheduling challenges. Congestion at these hubs continues to extend transit times for transshipped cargo, while direct shipments to North Asia remain largely unaffected.
The gradual return of some services to the Suez Canal — Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's ME11 service resumed Red Sea transits in mid-February — is beginning to reintroduce supply and muddy the rate outlook. When full resumption does occur, analysts expect significant vessel bunching at European hubs and equipment shortages at Far East origin ports.
Regulation
Transpacific Tariff Regime Suppresses Volumes Through Mid-Year
China-to-U.S. volumes are nearly 30% lower year-over-year. U.S. container ports are forecasting continued import declines as tariff uncertainty keeps procurement teams on the sidelines.
West Coast Labor Tensions Elevate Terminal Dwell at Rotterdam, Hamburg
No strike action since 2023, but unresolved contract language is keeping dwell times elevated at key Northern European terminals. 3PL managers should build buffer days into EU-bound ocean bookings.
Suez Canal Authority Forecasts H2 2026 Return — Analysts Skeptical
The Suez Canal Authority projects normal traffic levels by H2 2026. Most freight analysts consider this timeline optimistic given current Iran-U.S. tensions and carrier risk appetite.
The Inventory Overhang That Tariff Frontloading Built — and What Comes After the Drawdown
Procurement directors who pulled forward six months of orders to beat duties are now sitting on warehouses of inventory — and the shipping market is paying for it
The Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka attributed forecasted single-digit volume declines to high inventories after months of shipper frontloading. When importers pull demand forward, they borrow volume from future quarters — and those future quarters are now arriving. U.S. container ports are experiencing year-over-year declines with forecasts indicating this weakening demand persists through H1.
The strategic shift is already visible: shippers are moving away from heavy annual-contract dependence toward diversified, flexible strategies. 3PL account managers who can articulate this dynamic to procurement clients — and offer spot-rate hedging frameworks — are finding the conversation has moved from operational to strategic. That is the value gap Dispatch exists to close.
Policy Wire
Ongoing policy uncertainty and rising tariffs are projected to significantly suppress U.S. import cargo demand. Container ports have experienced year-over-year declines, with forecasts indicating weakness persisting through H1 2026.
Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said the West Coast port would likely see single-digit declines in year-over-year import volumes, attributing the dip to high inventories after months of shipper frontloading to beat tariffs.
Though major labor strikes have been avoided since 2023, tensions persist on the U.S. West Coast and in parts of Northern Europe, leading to elevated dwell times at terminals in Rotterdam and Hamburg.
Rising U.S.-Iran tensions could influence Red Sea security dynamics. Even without full escalation, military posturing could cause carriers to delay plans to resume Suez transits — alleviating overcapacity pressure for carriers.
Technology
Carriers redeploying from Transpacific to Asia-Europe as demand holds
Transpacific air capacity reduced as ocean spot rates fall and shippers revert
IATA: Rates largely on par with 2024 levels. Agile redeployment tempering swings
IATA full-year projection. Modest but sustained, led by e-commerce and pharma
The 3PL Account Manager's New Weapon: Real-Time Port Visibility That Outperforms Every Carrier Dashboard
When a client calls about a stuck shipment, the account manager who answers with data rather than "let me check on that" wins the relationship — and the renewal
Air cargo rates remained remarkably stable despite volume shifts, following seasonal patterns and staying largely on par with 2024 levels as carriers rapidly redeployed capacity from transpacific to growing lanes like Asia-Europe. IATA projects 2.6% global air cargo volume growth in 2026, with agile capacity shifts likely to temper rate fluctuations.
The more significant technology story is not in air rates — it is in visibility infrastructure. DCSA's Track & Trace standard now covers 74% of global container volume, creating a common data layer that 3PLs can integrate without bilateral API agreements with individual carriers. For account managers, this means the question is no longer whether you can see the shipment — it is whether you are reading that data faster than the client's own dashboard.
Digital freight platforms report that shippers using spot-rate comparison tools are booking 22% closer to departure — capturing rate declines in real time. For procurement directors managing quarterly budgets against a falling rate curve, that 22-day compression is worth reviewing on its own merits.
Tech Wire
Port congestion prediction models are now integrating blank sailing announcements and berth occupancy data to generate 14-day ETA confidence intervals — reducing "unknown" statuses from 34% to under 8% for early adopters.
Digital freight platforms report that shippers using spot-rate comparison tools are booking 22% closer to departure, capturing rate declines in real time rather than locking into forward contracts.
DCSA's Track & Trace standard adoption reached 74% of global container volume in Q4 2025 — creating a common data layer that 3PLs can now integrate without bilateral API agreements with each carrier.
CBP's ACE platform processed 98.2% of entries within 2 hours in January 2026. Automated entry filing now covers 91% of U.S. import volume, reducing clearance as a source of dwell time at inland facilities.
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